真他妈倒霉

这年头人要背了真是喝口凉水都塞牙。昨天自从显卡突然停止工作后，今天扫描仪又倒下了，n个月不用以后看来它自动提前退休。可幸的是微软键盘又复活了，真是进进出出十分得爽快。希望其他零件不要再夭折了。小车车看来要多照顾它了，大夏天的不要没水什么的。

chrome + iphone wishlist

google chrome wish list:

1. better bookmark management and sorting capabilities
2. sync bookmark with web service (get into the cloud!)
3. better support for flash and java 

iphone wish list:

1. sync with google calendar
2. cut and paste

wuxiandeng talk

1. we should all strive to improve our alpha day by day to accumulate advantage
2. we should leverage on borrowing and other people's abilities
3. should use offset account more rigorously to save interest payment, put everything in offset account. offset account can also be used for capital gain deposit on the property
4. one person can have 4 property (600k) before property land tax start to be levied. after 4 property put all new property on trust
5. cash flow is the key instead of the amount of debt. as long as your good debt is more than your bad debt you will be ok.
6. have at least 5 years of emergency cash (enough to cover interest payment and living expenses) then can retire

the depression analogies

it is all too easy to draw parallels to the 1929 depression that almost none of us have experienced first hand. Slate magazine has so far been transcending in its holistic and balanced viewed and reporting of the whole economic affair and i am grateful to the washington post company for that. this kind of jounalistic quality has simply been missing in most mainland chinese news sources. anyhow, it is easy to conclude from a few sound bites of the news that the doom is coming, and indeed it has, for the millions unemployed souls this is truly the worst. the main thesis of this post is the paradigm introduced by a globalised commodity and capital market, and its impact on crisis spreading and containment.

Ok so the argument for a less severe depression this time around compare to the '29 event is that government worldwide especially the U.S. is ill-prepared for the task. banks fail because there is no insurance scheme and the administration is simply imbecile at the time. so there is nothing left to do but fail. plus the communist ruled europe and prehistoric japan isn't much help either. simply dwelling on this fact will not support the claim that the financial crisis of 08 will be benign. on closer inspection of what the market today has produced will provide complexity in analysing the severity of the financial crisis of '08. butterfly effects are amplified today due to the advanced state of communication we enjoy today. sometimes I reckon this might not be such a good thing that we are able to communication anywhere and anytime and read anything. anyway, fear in this case is amplified because the world consumers are bombarded subconsciously that the economy as we know it today is going to end.  Ok i must admit in my darkest corner of mind there is a (small) yet playful part that scorns at the prospect of millions become jobless. the pure value of this sinking economy makes excellent drama of human suffering,don't you agree? this beats formula 1 hands down no question... anyway, secretly happiness never hurt any stock price, but fear definitely would. moreover and perhaps more crucially than fear itself is the interconnected nature of this crisis where financial products are bundled, packaged, intertwined and injected into each other. Look around ourselves and we found our banks, our super, our mortgage company, our insurance company, our company and our family all have more or less holding of the sub prime mortgage and that is a bit worrying. this will cause a self-propelling sequence of waves of deleveraging that will never end in good shape. in other words, everybody is scarred in the end to some extent.

the twin top formation of the dow have been hailed by some (e.g., me) as the turning point of our modern economy, as legend has it, it's only gonna go down hill from here. but how much down? let us paint a picture here. the tip of current bull run is formed last year in august, where everything and every man is geared to 110% and maxed out on equity leveraging loan. this equity index figure at the time can not and should not be trusted. it will come down fast like a dough on yeast hit by a heavy hand. no surprise there. then the unfortunate thing happened. consumer and business confidence is shot because credit market seized up. on snap. nobody can afford to borrow anymore because money is so damned expensive despite repeated urging of the central governments and a flurry of interest rate lowering. no matter. financial institutions such as the notorious citi bank are having crisis of their own and can not afford to lend. they need equity to beef up their balance sheet in the face of plunging loan book face value. how exactly this sequence occus is unknown whether it is the sacking occur first or the cutting of spending. i would think they happen simultaneously. how much falling can consumer confidence hurt the economy is unknown but i would venture the following guess:

1. house hold borrowing will fall to a lower equilibrium such as 93 % from the current level of 99% or more. this decrease of borrowing will dent GDP by a significant market especially when US GDP is made up of 50% consumer spending, of which automobile spending is a large chunk in itself. (cya GM)
2. household spending will not increase until the new Obama administration injected some heavy words and billions of cash into the economy and a few key industry is propped up such as financial and automobile, and foreign investors started to snap up bargain based stocks in large blue chips. this will signify the bottom of the market fall as seem by USA's new owners, the middle easterners and the chinese
3. the recovery will be long and painful and cheap labour is running out and high gearing is never to be seen again. the true growth can only now be coming from equity growth and revenue improvement, never again financial engineering. which make me suspect the new administration and the new attorney will start to hammer out law to specifically enforce the banking sector and all the crazy investment practices of the past decade pioneered by none other than the the beloved former fed chair alan Greenspan. (i used to love the guy, sigh)
4. the world is kind of level off after this crisis. developing countries are hurt less because they are geared less. think about chinese's saving rate of 30% and its implications. the world countries kind of come back to the same starting line again, this time with fairer competition and more liquidity. somehow i feel this could be a good thing in the long run. the new commodity will be (yet again) the grab for brilliant minds and improvement of productivity. American consultants, sadly, will be yet again in demand as the new challenge dawns on the world (circa 2010). so the moral of the story is to get in to investment banks NOW before it's too late
5. i'm not too certain on the housing situation. the world will always need housing and people should not be scared into deferring their real estate purchasing decisions. in the long run the minority of owner occupier buyers will start to push house prices in key suburbs higher through positive churning, and this will be the key determinant of wealth creation for us layman souls. so it is not too late to invest start from now.
6. i can't see how china will start to beat the US and JAPAN straight after this crisis because our administration is still, for a lack of more adequate word, fucked. business can not function in a sealed, muddled, and overly corrupt world. human creativity are not fostered in a biased and unfair environment. a direct consequence is the net outflow of creative minds which will only benefit the existing establishment. eg. the US. just look at where top college graduates go and weep.
   
7. the auto industry. oh the tragedy even though oil will take ages to climb back the mid 100 price level reached earlier this year, the mental shock will remain in the mean time. hummers and escalades will be out of vogue for a long time to come. GM can not wait to push out its VOLT faster. ford is actually making cars ppl like. Fusion and its SUV siblings are quite attractive once people start to looking for cars to buy again. if they can stack up with quality and discount then ford will be alright. the chinese auto market will the a shining beacon of hope and cash flow for the next 2 years for all auto makers as the chinese continue to squeeze boxes on wheels onto their hectic and downright dangerous roads. double deck expressways anyone? how exactly can metropolitan areas get around the bottleneck situations is beyond me. the sheer volumne of cars in chinese cities today is a great project for urban planners.
8. the END
   

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10 things to know for building inspection

1. Cracking
Up to two-thirds of houses inspected in some older suburbs will show some evidence of cracking, especially with our recent long dry spells. Repairing this could cost anywhere from $300 to $20,000 for underpinning.

This just goes to show how valuable a pre-purchase inspection can be. You will know what expenses you are likely to be in for, and the inspection report could be used as a bargaining tool to lower the purchase price of the property.

2. Rising Damp
Many inner suburban houses in Melbourne and Sydney will have evidence of rising damp. This is because many of these houses were built on stone foundations, and stone and brick are quite porous. These problems can be fixed, but it can cost between $5,000 and $10,000 to fix a damp problem.

3. Electrical faults
Electrical faults are commonly seen in houses that were about 60 years old - the lifespan for electrical wiring. It could cost anywhere between $3,000 to $4,000 to have a house rewired.

4. Framing Faults
Faults in the frames of many older houses that could involve spending up to $20,000. This is because the poor structure could result in collapse of the roof requiring a complete new roof system.

5. Roof Problems
Roof problems are found in many older houses and some of these will be related to poor house frames.

6. Illegal Building extensions
There is a chance that you will be buying other people's problems if you buy a house which has an illegal extension. That is, an extension that was built without council approval.

It may not cost you anything if you are prepared to keep the house as it is, but it could cost up to $50,000 if the whole extension needs to be rebuilt. If you intend to alter your property, when you submit your plans for additions or alterations to the council, they will become aware that there are some existing changes to the property that were made without there knowledge and approval.

7. Timber rot
In some suburbs, many houses suffer from some form of timber rot. The extent will vary greatly from windows that could be relaced for $600 to thousands of dollars for more extensive damage. Replacing rotten stumps could cost about $5,000 to $10,000 for an average home.

8. Rotten Stumps
In the past it was thought that only wooden stumps would rot away and concrete stumps didn't rot. But now it has been realised that, after about 40 years, the steel reinforcing inside concrete stumps rusts - causing the surrounding concrete to crumble. This is a common problem seen in houses build about 40 years ago.

9. Termites
If the stumps or other parts of the property show signs of termites, a treatment could cost between $500 and $2,000. If the termites have caused damage to other parts of the property the cost could be horrendous.

10. Poor water supply
Poor water pressure occurs when the galvanised pipes used in many old homes starts to rust from the inside. This shows up as discoloured water and a sudden drop in water pressure when more that one tap is turned on. To rectify this problem the property will need to be replumbed at a typical cost of $3,000 to $4,000.

Newer houses are built using copper pipes or PVC pipes that do not rust.

小彻悟 之 抛开枷锁，自由行事

如 小时候跳远，想到要踩到跳板则脚步凌乱。直接冲过去反而能算准踩板点

the fundamental paradigm difference between chinese and australian culture manifested through workplace communication

No more obvious is the huge cultural gap between cultures manifested through interpersonal relationship and communication in workplaces. We of chinese origin are almost flabbergasted when confronted with such a cultural shock when western counterpart treat us with direct honesty and unabated sincerity. how is this possible in a globalized society I wonder.